PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4860 on: September 22, 2010, 11:15:14 AM »
Strategy: Leverage, the Solution to all Problems - Really?

   Re)introduction of leverage in the form of upcoming MTS product should improve market participation and price discovery

   However price performance may still remain capped due to 1) lenders’ reluctance to finance leverage tools and 2) Pakistan equities currently face crisis of confidence rather than liquidity

   As shown by numbers, lenders of previous leverage product (CFS) no longer appear to have the willingness or ability to finance the upcoming MTS

   Moreover, PKR55bn of domestic investors’ net outflow since Jul09 and a whopping increase in investment in government papers, NSS and money market funds show that liquidity is not the primary concern facing the equity markets

   Thus given the current environment of political instability, increasing interest rates, rising inflation and energy crisis, (re)introduction of leverage should not alone be construed upon as a reason enough to build aggressive equity position
 
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4861 on: September 22, 2010, 11:57:43 AM »
Why are foreigners buying and locals selling equities?

Off late Pakistan has been getting plenty of bad
macro press courtesy, fiscal indiscipline, higher
inflation and the power crisis. This looming crisis was
further aggravated with the havoc caused by the
recent floods, the worst ever in the past century. The
question that consequently arises is, whether
Pakistani macros are heading back to their pre-
Lehman crisis (or 2008 commodity super spike) state or not?
Our answer is ‘No’, but at the same time, we believe, macro
vulnerabilities are clearly advancing.

The aftermaths of the 2008 debacle had been; depleting
foreign reserves caused by a higher twin deficit and in turn,
higher inflation leading to substantial Rupee depreciation.
Relatively speaking, in the present, Pakistan’s reserves are
strengthening; the current account is under control led by
commodity price pass through and a stable real effective
exchange rate, and the global economic outlook is recovering
from its worst. This is also reflected from the recent growing
foreign interest in the local equity bourse, where foreigners
have invested around US$566mn in FY10, highest since the
record US$978mn worth of funds flowed into the KSE in
FY07.

Why are foreigners buying?
As stated in our research report- Foreigners regaining
position at the KSE; dated: 20 Sep 2010 - foreigners own
one-third of Pakistan’s equity free float and accounted for
32.86% of the total traded value at the bourse. The all time
high level of foreign ownership witnessed last was 28.22% in
November 2007. To us, the reasons behind the foreign
interest in 2007 and 2010 are entirely opposite:

2007: The economy was overheating, liquidity was abundant,
reserves were stabilizing and the global funds were in search
of better yields. Hence the preferred sector at that time was
Banking.
Sector of main interest: The banking scrips comprised over
31% of the KSE’s market pie.

2010: Stagflation is over and the economy is in recovery
mode, external discipline has been revived, food and fuel
subsides have been withdrawn, an economic reformation
process backed by the IMF is in place and more importantly,
the US has emerged as the strong ally. The higher external
support is a prime source of comfort for the foreigners this
time around.
Sector of main interest: Oil and Gas share has grown to 36%
of the KSE’s total market capitalization.

FY10 and FY07 comparison
(US$bn) FY10 FY07
Foreign inflows 0 .6 1.0
Inflation 11.7% 7.8%
GDP growth 4.1% 6.8%
Fiscal Deficit 6.3% 4.3%
C/A Deficit 3 .5 6.9
Reserves 16.8 15.6
Exchange Rate 85.5 60.4
Discount Rate 12.5% 9.5%
P/E (X) 8.5 13.2
Market Cap 3 2.0 66.5
Banking sector weight 23.0% 31.0%
Oil & Gas sector weight 36.0% 24.0%
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, SBP & JS Research

Why locals are sellers?
The lack of liquidity, non-availability of financing options, the
banks’ risk-averse attitude towards stock investors and
imposition of capital gain tax have been deterring local
participation. Add to that, the federal decision of keeping the
SBP Governor’s position vacant for 3 months, non
appointment of the SECP chairman and having had four
different finance ministers within a short span of 30 months.
And if that were not enough, the recent wide scale floods,
increasing price pressures and the persisting inter-corporate
debt have heavily weighed in on the minds of the locals
encouraging their selling spree.

What to look out for?
Key events to observe are the upcoming monetary policy,
imposition of new taxes under the category of flood
surcharges, foreign flows (from donors) and the blue print of
the interim budget.

Given the recent price pressures, we are not ruling out a
50bps discount rate hike, however, the SBP may restrain
itself in September as the impact of the last 50bps hike in
July is not yet fully transmitted.

The flood surcharges on income bear negatively on the
earning of the corporate sector and inflation’s state. The
GoP has proposed a 10% one–time surcharge on income,
in the Letter of Intent submitted to the IMF recently.

The key to enhancing liquidity and the revival of domestic
economy is foreign inflows. So far US$4.5bn worth of
international commitments have been received apart from
the household charity received from around the world.

The deficit story: initial impressions suggest a 6-7% deficit,
which is a negative from the market interest rate’s point of
view, but beneficial for the corporates, in the shape of a
higher demand for goods and services.

JSGCL
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Offline mamu jee

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4862 on: September 22, 2010, 12:33:45 PM »
Market ma koy jaaan nahee.9500 bohat easily break ho jay ga :bangin:

Offline Poker Face

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4863 on: September 22, 2010, 04:19:29 PM »

can kse rally after mps on 1q results ?

Definitely, market has to rise. Past 100 year record of different markets show that financial market always remains bullish in the long run. Even it we look at approx values of KSE since 1992, it is bullish in the long run. Nothing can be said about the short term though. A second study also shows that bonds are inversely proportional to shares i.e when bonds are bullish, shares are bearish and vice versa. I believe bonds are bullish in Pakistan at the moment.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4864 on: September 22, 2010, 06:51:52 PM »
1.6m Foreign buying
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Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4865 on: September 22, 2010, 07:45:43 PM »
Incorrect EOD for kse-100 on ksestocks.com [download time 7:39pm]
apparently open and close figures are mistakenly interchanged .. [now I wanna know its source :mad: ]

is this the correct one ?
Open:10002.8
High:10015.9
Low:9924.61
Close:9946.42
Volume:50858012 (Total)

please cross-check the correct data ..

Footnotes:
this sucks !
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Offline asimsaim

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4866 on: September 22, 2010, 08:26:41 PM »

can kse rally after mps on 1q results ?

Definitely, market has to rise. Past 100 year record of different markets show that financial market always remains bullish in the long run. Even it we look at approx values of KSE since 1992, it is bullish in the long run. Nothing can be said about the short term though. A second study also shows that bonds are inversely proportional to shares i.e when bonds are bullish, shares are bearish and vice versa. I believe bonds are bullish in Pakistan at the moment.

May I beg to differ ... This is total misconcept and like once 'Buy' and never Sale again. In the great recession of our times ,  Market lost more than 66 % , and capitalization earned in over  8 years took less than 8 months to melt away .  Just imagine of Gurus Selling Long Positions  at 15500 level of KSe , and again entering in 4800 level. and again reached at 10500.   This is not important what 'Market is doing' ... Important is ' How your portfolio is doing ' .

As remains Bonds market, it is Norm of Markets every where,  if shares Dip, money market Sips.

peace.  :biggthumpup:

Offline asimsaim

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4867 on: September 22, 2010, 08:31:58 PM »
Incorrect EOD for kse-100 on ksestocks.com [download time 7:39pm]
apparently open and close figures are mistakenly interchanged .. [now I wanna know its source :mad: ]

is this the correct one ?
Open:10002.8
High:10015.9
Low:9924.61
Close:9946.42
Volume:50858012 (Total)

please cross-check the correct data ..

Footnotes:
this sucks !

 :laugh:   Rather   ... Use the File from KSE website,, It also contains Futures Data.    and each and every thing. For the 100  index you can manually enter the values in the downloaded  File .  :biggthumpup:


Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4868 on: September 22, 2010, 09:40:34 PM »
Incorrect EOD for kse-100 on ksestocks.com [download time 7:39pm]
apparently open and close figures are mistakenly interchanged .. [now I wanna know its source :mad: ]

is this the correct one ?
Open:10002.8
High:10015.9
Low:9924.61
Close:9946.42
Volume:50858012 (Total)

please cross-check the correct data ..

Footnotes:
this sucks !

 :laugh:   Rather   ... Use the File from KSE website,, It also contains Futures Data.    and each and every thing. For the 100  index you can manually enter the values in the downloaded  File .  :biggthumpup:



last time I checked kse data was faulty where open figure is taken as share's last closed price .. which also makes me wonder if u've been using it forever .. plus you didn't answer the real question I asked about EOD ..
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Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4869 on: September 22, 2010, 09:47:58 PM »
@Farzooq - I am comparing kse.com.pk data with ksestocks.com and I see differences in the closing rate .. needless to say that opening price of kse.com.pk is faulty as it's taken as last closed price but I've never come across different closing price ..
take 'MTL' for example .. its last closing price [sept21] was 585.28 but ksestocks.com listed 585 as its closing price which is incorrect !
it's kinda shocking presuming that we rely on ksestocks.com for daily data .. 
what do you say ?

edit:
seems like closing prices of all companies on 21 sept 2010 are corrupt !!
« Last Edit: September 22, 2010, 10:03:56 PM by M&M »
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4870 on: September 22, 2010, 10:00:48 PM »
@Farzooq - I am comparing kse.com.pk data with ksestocks.com and I see differences in the closing rate .. needless to say that opening price of kse.com.pk is faulty as it's taken as last closed price but I've never come across different closing price ..
take 'MTL' for example .. its last closing price [sept21] was 585.28 but ksestocks.com listed 585 as its closing price which is incorrect !
it's kinda shocking presuming that we rely on ksestocks.com for daily data .. 
what do you say ?



what other source of data or choice do we have ?

 
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Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4871 on: September 22, 2010, 10:07:42 PM »
@Farzooq - I am comparing kse.com.pk data with ksestocks.com and I see differences in the closing rate .. needless to say that opening price of kse.com.pk is faulty as it's taken as last closed price but I've never come across different closing price ..
take 'MTL' for example .. its last closing price [sept21] was 585.28 but ksestocks.com listed 585 as its closing price which is incorrect !
it's kinda shocking presuming that we rely on ksestocks.com for daily data .. 
what do you say ?



what other source of data or choice do we have ?

 

 :(
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4872 on: September 22, 2010, 10:09:11 PM »

gotta rely on ksestocks then
as we had been doing it in past
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Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4873 on: September 22, 2010, 10:41:52 PM »

gotta rely on ksestocks then
as we had been doing it in past

but then what's the point of using incorrect data for technical analysis - it will ultimately lead to wrong conclusion ..
this is just grrrr .. Khassi Stock Exchange  >:(
patani piclhey data mey kia kia keerey hongey ..
hahaha that also justifies why technicals doesn't seem to work effectively here  :arrowhead:  :laugh:
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Offline asimsaim

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4874 on: September 22, 2010, 11:05:08 PM »
@Farzooq - I am comparing kse.com.pk data with ksestocks.com and I see differences in the closing rate .. needless to say that opening price of kse.com.pk is faulty as it's taken as last closed price but I've never come across different closing price ..
take 'MTL' for example .. its last closing price [sept21] was 585.28 but ksestocks.com listed 585 as its closing price which is incorrect !
it's kinda shocking presuming that we rely on ksestocks.com for daily data .. 
what do you say ?

edit:
seems like closing prices of all companies on 21 sept 2010 are corrupt !!

Well . the reason is , KSE takes last half hour volume weighted price ,  Thats why you see the difference.   (This is common practice for all Exchanges around the World) This you can watch for yourself . after market close they will change the price.   However I prefer KSE , As it contains all the items futures etc.  (Though Gaps cannot be visualised..  But If you also consider pre open session , then its OK .) 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2010, 11:07:14 PM by asimsaim »

Offline asimsaim

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4875 on: September 22, 2010, 11:10:36 PM »
Incorrect EOD for kse-100 on ksestocks.com [download time 7:39pm]
apparently open and close figures are mistakenly interchanged .. [now I wanna know its source :mad: ]

is this the correct one ?
Open:10002.8
High:10015.9
Low:9924.61
Close:9946.42
Volume:50858012 (Total)

please cross-check the correct data ..

Footnotes:
this sucks !

 :laugh:   Rather   ... Use the File from KSE website,, It also contains Futures Data.    and each and every thing. For the 100  index you can manually enter the values in the downloaded  File .  :biggthumpup:



last time I checked kse data was faulty where open figure is taken as share's last closed price .. which also makes me wonder if u've been using it forever .. plus you didn't answer the real question I asked about EOD ..
 

I get my Data from 5 different sources .. thats no problem for me.  I am comfortable with that.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4876 on: September 22, 2010, 11:24:35 PM »

 :clap1: Do share your sources
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Offline asimsaim

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4877 on: September 22, 2010, 11:46:29 PM »

 :clap1: Do share your sources

Sorry ,,, Ghaltee se Ulat likh gaya tha. Mera matlab tha kay , I use 5 types of data for analysis.  which goes like , Technical , Fundamental , Sector , Insiders / News , And national  Economy..   

Of course for a single exchange ,  Just 1 source is enough.  (it makes no sense to obtain Raw data from 5 sources)

Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4878 on: September 23, 2010, 09:29:08 AM »
never mind ..
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Offline M&M

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Re: KSE 100 Index
« Reply #4879 on: September 23, 2010, 09:32:06 AM »

can kse rally after mps on 1q results ?

results agar achey nahin aaye to waaaatttt
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